Tomorrow is the third and final leadership debate in the run up to the General Election on 6th May, the topic will be on the economy. In many respect this is one of the few areas where the three main parties have different views and plans to tackle the monkey on the UK’s back -the national debt.

From continuing along a steady path and increasing National Insurance to speeding up the governmental spending reduction programme and keeping National Insurance as is; there are choices. It will certainly be interesting.

The one thing I wanted to look at this evening was the projected number of seats expected to be won by the Conservative party from the tmg seat projector.

At the start of the campaign the Tory’s were looking like returning the slim but clear majority. It should be said though that that this was the starting point of the social and crowd sourcing experiment and therefore this was a guessed starting point from various betting and social systems; based loosely on vote share polls.

Before the first debate the number of seats started to hover just below the ‘win line’ but within the expected 8 extra votes from the DUP, it wasn’t really a major issue for them in reality.

Then the first debate; the nation discovered that the Lib Dem’s weren’t just the strange party in the corner of the Houses of Parliament or the actually discovered them for the first time. Nick Clegg works the room and the camera and people took notice. The number of projected seats for the Tory’s continued to drop, with both Labour and the Lib Dems taking seats from their total. The papers talked talking about a third party and more people started to pay attention.

The number of seats continued to drop as the trending methodology of the seat projector caught up with this new mood of the nation and by mid April the Tory’s had reached 9 short of a majority. At this point even the DUP would only help create an minority government.

The second debate had less on an effect, but confirmed that the ‘Clegg effect’ was going to remain until after the election and the polls moved to a point where you wouldn’t know who would be first, second and third from day to day.

Move to the eve of this final debate and the Tory vote is falling ever further back, the Labour vote is dropping off, but the Lib Dem vote seems to be bigger, stronger and secure. The many seats that the Tory’s were expecting to win off the Lib Dems in the South West and South East now start to look out of their reach.

Tory projected seats (click for full size)

Therefore the Tory’s have only a few things to hold on to:

  • Win the final debate by such a large margin that their support returns
  • Hope that Nick Clegg doesn’t perform well or that this surge of Lib Dem support will dissipate before the 6th May
  • Abandon some of the Lib Dem targets instead look of previously ‘off the radar’ Labour seats
  • Hope that every projection and every poll is wrong in a ’1992 might happen again’ moment of blind faith

Personally I think that beyond a massive mood swing (and something larger than bigot-gate), this election is heading the Tory’s having the highest number of seats but too far away from the win line. However it also looks like the combined number of seats for Labour and the Lib Dems will also be shy of the win line. What happens next becomes any-one’s guess. Can we see a Tory / Lib Dem pack? I’m not sure; I think the Tory’s will be too close to the win line to give up cabinet positions and change the voting system for those Lib Dem seats that will push them well over the win line. Instead we might see a minority government for short period of time, though this would create many extra dangers.

Labour would get a new leader, the next budget will make the whole country feel sad and angry. You might even get public sector strikes and general unrest due to the ‘tough choices’ required. This might lead to the minority government falling early and not getting back in again; whoever governs isn’t going to be popular for at least a couple of years. Due to this we might even get another election before summer is even over.

Crazy times.